July exports continued to fall, the same period last year high base impact still remains, if the two-year average growth rate, in fact, exports in July is up. From the perspective of export countries, it is still mainly declining, the decline of the United States has narrowed slightly, the decline of exports to Europe and Japan has expanded, the export of ASEAN has declined slightly, and the rest of the BRICS countries are still declining except for India.From the perspective of export commodities, labor-intensive commodities are mainly declining, the export of integrated circuits has improved, the export of mobile phones has turned from negative to positive, and the export of automobiles has fallen from a high level, but it still remains strong. Imports also continued to fall. In terms of import volume, the growth rate of major imported commodities has declined except for copper and steel. Under the drag of volume, imports as a whole are still weak. Both imports and exports fell in July, and the trade surplus remained high.
With the recovery of economic and social life in 2023, we believe that economic growth will gradually enter a stable period after the initial rebound. We believe that the changes in the macro environment have laid the foundation for the operation of China's capital market to enter a new stage of stable recovery. We believe that China's economy is still in the "bottom hover" stage, prices remain low and stable is more guaranteed, so China's interest rate market center will continue to maintain a downward trend; Under the influence of stable policies and economic resilience, the operation pattern of the capital market has not changed slowly.
The pattern of China's continued high surplus reflects the strong position of the Chinese economy in international competitiveness, which comes from China's economy of scale as a major economy, the advantages of a sound industrial system, the number and quality of the population constitute a suitable resource endowment advantage, etc. More importantly, the capital advantage accumulated over 40 years of development is not a short-term challenge. We believe that this dominant position of the Chinese economy in international economic competition will continue for a long time to come. Under the softening outlook of the global economy, the overall weak trend of commodity prices remains, so China's high surplus in the short term of 2-4Q is expected to continue.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical events have worsened, and the international financial situation has changed. China's inflation rose more than expected, and China's monetary policy changed more than expected.
